The final week of February 2026 begins with a bifurcated global landscape, as markets in China and Japan remain closed for the Lunar New Year and Emperor’s Birthday celebrations while Western bourses prepare for a heavy schedule of corporate and economic catalysts. Investors are currently balancing optimistic growth expectations against the reality of a persistent inflation environment that has delayed anticipated central bank easing. The convergence of results from the worlds largest semiconductor company and pivotal price data will likely serve as the definitive test for equity market resilience as the first quarter progresses.

Artificial Intelligence Trade Faces NVIDIA Litmus Test

Corporate performance takes center stage on Wednesday after the market close, when NVIDIA reports its latest quarterly results. As the primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom, the company’s guidance will be scrutinized for signals regarding the durability of enterprise spending in the cloud and hardware sectors. The earnings calendar is also populated by other influential tech and consumer names, including Salesforce, Snowflake, and The Trade Desk on Wednesday, followed by Dell and Zscaler on Thursday. These reports, alongside results from retail giants like TJX and Home Depot, will offer a comprehensive view of how higher interest rates are impacting both corporate capital expenditures and household discretionary budgets.

Macroeconomic Gauges: PPI and Consumer Sentiment

The macroeconomic narrative this week centers on Friday’s release of the January Producer Price Index, which is forecast to rise by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis. This wholesale inflation metric will be paired with the Chicago PMI to provide a real-time pulse of manufacturing health and price pressures in the American heartland. Earlier in the week, Tuesday’s CB Consumer Confidence report for February is expected to show an improvement to 87.6, indicating that American households remain relatively upbeat despite the shifting interest rate environment. These data points are essential for institutional investors attempting to forecast the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory heading into the spring.

Global Economic Health and International Sentiment

While Asian markets observe regional holidays, the European economic outlook will be refined by Germany’s fourth-quarter GDP update on Wednesday. Analysts expect the reading to confirm a 0.3 percent quarterly growth rate, mirroring the previous period and suggesting that Europes largest economy is managing to avoid a deeper contraction. Friday also brings German CPI figures for February, which will be a vital indicator for the European Central Banks upcoming deliberations. Domestically, Thursday’s initial jobless claims are projected to tick up slightly to 216,000, reflecting a labor market that remains tight but is showing early signs of the normalization necessary to achieve price stability.

Moving forward, the primary risk for global portfolios remains the potential for an earnings miss in the high-valuation technology sector, which could trigger a broader technical retracement across major indices. Investors should maintain a vigilant watch on the crude oil inventory report on Wednesday, as energy price volatility continues to influence headline inflation expectations. The coming days will likely determine if the market’s recent focus on growth can persist in the face of sticky wholesale prices and a potentially more hawkish tone from upcoming presidential communications. Monitoring the interplay between NVIDIA’s forward guidance and the PPI’s trajectory will be the most effective strategy for identifying whether the current bull cycle has the fundamental support required for a sustained breakout in March.