A pivotal week awaits global markets as investors confront a rare convergence of corporate catalysts, geopolitical tension, and renewed trade-policy uncertainty. Wednesday’s earnings from Nvidia arrive against the backdrop of rising US-Iran hostilities that have lifted oil prices and President Trump’s decision to raise the new global tariff rate to 15%, just days after the Supreme Court struck down earlier emergency tariffs. The interaction between AI-driven equity momentum, inflation risks from energy and trade, and fragile rate-cut expectations will likely determine whether markets extend their rebound or retreat into defensive positioning.

AI’s Bellwether: Nvidia at the Center of the Storm

Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday represent the defining corporate moment of the quarter. As the dominant supplier of AI accelerators, its results serve as a referendum on whether hyperscaler capital expenditure remains durable or is nearing saturation. Investors will scrutinize data-center revenue growth, Blackwell chip demand trends, and gross margin resilience amid intensifying competition and custom silicon development by cloud giants.

Given Nvidia’s outsized weighting in major indices, a sharp post-earnings reaction could ripple across semiconductors, mega-cap technology, and broader risk sentiment. Strong guidance may reinforce the AI-led bull narrative, while even modest disappointment could amplify concerns that valuations have outrun fundamentals.

Tariff Whiplash and Policy Uncertainty

Trade policy reentered the spotlight after the Supreme Court invalidated many of the administration’s prior tariffs, prompting an immediate counter with a new 15% global levy. The abrupt shift underscores legal ambiguity around executive trade authority and injects fresh uncertainty into corporate planning cycles.

For multinational companies, higher import costs risk pressuring margins and potentially reigniting inflation. Retailers, consumer electronics firms, and industrial manufacturers are particularly exposed. Tuesday’s consumer confidence report and President Trump’s evening speech may provide early signals on how households and businesses are digesting the policy volatility.

Oil, Inflation and the Fed’s Dilemma

Escalating US-Iran tensions have propelled oil prices higher, introducing a geopolitical risk premium that threatens to reverse recent disinflation trends. Energy-driven price pressure complicates the Federal Reserve’s calculus at a time when markets have been pricing potential rate cuts later in the year.

Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be closely watched for evidence that higher crude prices are feeding into wholesale costs. A renewed inflation uptick could temper rate-cut optimism and weigh on equities, particularly high-duration growth stocks.

Enterprise Software and Broader Earnings Signals

Alongside Nvidia, Snowflake and Salesforce will report, offering a broader snapshot of enterprise technology demand. Their commentary on AI monetization, corporate IT budgets, and deal pipelines will help determine whether the software sector can stabilize after recent volatility.

Together, these earnings will clarify whether AI enthusiasm remains concentrated in hardware infrastructure or is translating into durable software and enterprise spending growth.

Looking ahead, markets face a delicate balance. Strong corporate guidance and contained inflation data could reinforce risk appetite despite geopolitical tension. Conversely, signs of margin compression, policy missteps, or accelerating price pressures could shift momentum toward defensive sectors and safe-haven assets. This week’s developments may well define the tone for the remainder of the quarter.