Quantitative Overview of Q4 2025

In the final quarter of 2025, Chipotle reported revenue of approximately $3.0 billion, a 4.9% increase compared to the same period last year. However, beneath the surface, a concerning trend emerged: the number of transactions fell by 3.2%. The fact that revenue rose despite declining foot traffic is attributed to a modest 0.7% increase in the average check and the contribution of new store openings. Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) stood at $0.25, representing negligible growth and reflecting stagnant operating profitability.

Food and packaging costs decreased slightly to 30.2% of revenue due to supply chain efficiencies, but these gains were offset by rising labor wages and new tariffs affecting raw material prices. Ultimately, the Q4 operating margin eroded to 14.1%, highlighting the company’s struggle to maintain efficiency in complex market conditions.

Full-Year 2025 Performance

Fiscal 2025 will be remembered as a year of massive physical expansion set against macroeconomic headwinds. The company surpassed the 4,000-restaurant milestone, opening 334 new company-owned locations. The Chipotlane model proved critical, allowing the company to maintain accessibility even as consumers reduced physical sit-down visits. Net income for the year totaled $1.54 billion, a very slight increase over 2024, reflecting that revenue growth was largely absorbed by operational costs and expansion expenses.

Influencing Factors and Operational Contrasts

The report reveals an interesting dynamic: although Chipotle is considered a “premium” brand in the fast-casual sector, it is not immune to declining purchasing power. Lower-income target audiences began reducing their visits, forcing the company to rely on cautious price increases to avoid further alienating customers. The most striking contrast is between logistical success (store openings and supply chain improvements) and the marketing-consumer challenge (declining traffic).

2026 Outlook and Forward-Looking Statements

Management has adopted a conservative and cautious stance for 2026, forecasting flat growth in comparable restaurant sales. Focus will shift toward operational efficiency and the opening of 350–370 additional locations. The coming year will serve as a “litmus test” for Chipotle’s ability to bring customers back to its stores while navigating a tax and labor environment that remains challenging.