Goldman Sachs is set to report fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, with investors looking to see whether market volatility, stronger dealmaking, and buoyant asset prices translated into another strong finish for the investment banking giant. The results will arrive amid heightened expectations that large U.S. banks benefited disproportionately from a turbulent policy environment and revived capital markets activity late in the year.

What the Market Is Pricing In

Consensus forecasts compiled by LSEG point to earnings per share of $11.67 on revenue of $13.79 billion, a performance that would underscore Goldman’s leverage to trading and advisory activity. Analysts expect trading desks to once again carry significant weight, with fixed income revenue projected at $2.93 billion and equities trading revenue seen at $3.70 billion, according to StreetAccount data. Investment banking fees are estimated at $2.58 billion, reflecting a rebound in global dealmaking.

The numbers suggest a quarter shaped less by steady consumer banking and more by Goldman’s traditional strengths in markets and advisory services—areas that have regained momentum as volatility returned across asset classes.

Volatility as a Tailwind

Market turbulence tied to policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump has been a notable tailwind for trading desks across Wall Street. Fluctuations in bonds, currencies, commodities, and equities have driven higher client activity, benefiting firms with deep trading franchises like Goldman Sachs.

Rivals have already signaled how powerful that dynamic has been. JPMorgan Chase recently exceeded expectations after posting combined equities and fixed-income trading revenue roughly $460 million above StreetAccount estimates, raising the bar for Goldman and other peers.

Dealmaking and Asset Management in Focus

Beyond trading, investors will scrutinize Goldman’s investment banking results for confirmation that advisory activity continued to recover. According to Dealogic, global investment banking revenue in the fourth quarter rose about 12% from a year earlier, a trend that should support Goldman’s core advisory and underwriting businesses.

The firm’s asset and wealth management division is also expected to contribute positively. Equity markets remained resilient during the quarter, supporting fee-based revenues and asset values—an important stabilizer alongside more cyclical trading income.

Apple Card Exit Adds a One-Off Boost

Adding a layer of complexity to the quarter is Goldman’s decision to exit the Apple Card partnership. The bank said last week that transferring the business to JPMorgan would add roughly $0.46 per share to quarterly results. While the transaction improves near-term earnings optics, investors will likely focus more on underlying performance metrics to assess the bank’s sustainable earning power.

What Investors Will Listen for Next

Beyond the headline numbers, attention will turn to management commentary during the analyst call scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be listening for signals on the durability of trading revenues, the outlook for deal pipelines in 2026, and how Goldman plans to deploy capital after shedding consumer-facing operations.

With earnings season already highlighting a widening gap between banks that thrive on volatility and those more exposed to traditional lending, Goldman’s report could reinforce its position as a prime beneficiary of market-driven activity. Whether that strength can persist as volatility normalizes will shape how the stock is priced heading into the new year.