Key Points
- US futures rebounded as investors cautiously reassessed tech exposure after a sharp sell-off.
- Micron’s strong outlook reinforced confidence in sustained AI-driven semiconductor demand.
- The CPI report remains a critical catalyst for rate expectations and near-term market direction.
US stock futures edged higher on Thursday, signaling a tentative rebound after a bruising session driven by renewed anxiety around the durability of the artificial intelligence trade. With inflation data looming and interest-rate expectations finely balanced, investors appeared eager to reassess positioning after sharp losses in mega-cap technology names earlier in the week.
Futures Rebound After Tech-Led Sell-Off
Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose about 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed roughly 0.8%, outperforming broader benchmarks as dip-buyers cautiously re-entered the technology space. Dow Jones futures lagged slightly, underscoring a market still wrestling with sector rotation rather than broad-based risk-on enthusiasm.
The previous session had been defined by heavy selling across AI-linked stocks after Oracle’s setback on a major data center project reignited concerns about capital intensity, project delays, and overextended expectations. Weakness spilled over into semiconductor leaders such as Nvidia and Broadcom, reinforcing fears that the AI trade may be entering a more volatile and selective phase.
Micron Rekindles Confidence in AI Demand
Micron Technology emerged as a stabilizing force for sentiment. The memory-chip maker’s earnings outlook surprised decisively to the upside, with management forecasting next quarter’s adjusted profit at nearly double consensus estimates. The guidance suggested that demand from AI data centers remains robust despite broader market turbulence.
For investors, Micron’s results carried broader implications. As a key supplier within the AI hardware ecosystem, its upbeat forecast countered narratives that capital spending is peaking prematurely. The sharp premarket rally in Micron shares helped lift futures and reminded markets that not all AI exposure is equal, reinforcing a shift toward fundamentals and earnings visibility rather than thematic momentum alone.
CPI Report Looms Large for Rate Expectations
Attention now turns to the US consumer price index report for November, a release that carries unusual uncertainty due to disruptions caused by the recent government shutdown. With some month-on-month comparisons missing, investors face challenges in gauging true inflation momentum.
Even so, the data could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Recent commentary from policymakers has suggested growing sensitivity to labor-market softening rather than persistent price pressures. Fed Governor Chris Waller’s openness to rate cuts has reinforced the idea that monetary policy may remain supportive, provided inflation does not reaccelerate unexpectedly.
This backdrop leaves markets in a fragile equilibrium. A benign CPI reading could validate expectations for easing financial conditions, supporting equities and particularly long-duration growth stocks. Conversely, any upside surprise risks reigniting volatility by pushing bond yields higher and compressing equity valuations.
Investor Psychology and the Path Ahead
The current environment highlights a market grappling with confidence after years of AI-driven gains. Investors are increasingly selective, rewarding companies that deliver tangible earnings and punishing those perceived as overextended or dependent on optimistic assumptions. This dynamic is particularly relevant as liquidity thins and positioning remains crowded in certain segments of the technology sector.
Looking ahead, near-term direction is likely to hinge on inflation data and follow-through from corporate earnings. If CPI cooperates and AI-linked fundamentals continue to validate investment, markets may stabilize into year-end. However, the narrow leadership and sensitivity to negative surprises suggest volatility will remain a defining feature rather than an exception.
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