President Donald Trump’s public warning that Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may pose an antitrust “problem” has injected a new layer of uncertainty into what is already one of the most consequential deals in media history. The comments — made as he arrived at an event at the Kennedy Center — have raised questions about whether the White House might exert influence over a Justice Department review that is expected to be both lengthy and contentious. The merger would combine the world’s largest streaming service with HBO Max, giving Netflix control over a vast library of premium content and bolstering its competitive position in an increasingly consolidated entertainment landscape.

Trump acknowledged he recently met Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos but emphasized that the deal must undergo a formal regulatory process. His remarks prompted an immediate market reaction: prediction-market odds of the transaction closing by 2026 fell sharply, while shares of Warner Bros. Discovery edged higher in early trading and Netflix dipped. Though symbolic, the shift underscores investor sensitivity to political signals around the acquisition.

Regulatory Risks Mount as Deal Redefines Market Boundaries

The central antitrust question revolves around market share. Regulators could argue that Netflix — already the dominant subscription streaming platform — would exceed a 30% share threshold once Warner Bros.’ assets, including HBO Max, are folded in. That level has often served as an informal indicator of potential harm to competition.

Netflix is expected to counter that the relevant market is far broader than subscription streaming alone. Executives will likely insist that platforms like YouTube and TikTok — where consumers now spend increasing amounts of attention — are part of the same competitive universe, which would substantially dilute Netflix’s perceived dominance. The company is also expected to highlight its own subscriber volatility in recent years as evidence of an intensely competitive environment.

European and UK regulators are also preparing for close scrutiny. In London, members of the House of Lords have already raised questions about the deal’s effect on consumer prices and media plurality. The EU has similarly signaled a high degree of interest, given the transaction’s scale and cross-border impact.

Political Dynamics Create an Unusual Backdrop

The acquisition decision has become politically entangled after Warner Bros. chose Netflix over rival bidder Paramount Skydance. The rejection has frustrated allies close to Trump, including those who expected that Paramount’s ties to the administration might give it a strategic advantage. With Congress increasingly vocal on media consolidation, both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have already criticized the proposal as potentially harmful to consumers.

Trump’s comments also stand in contrast to industry views that technology-driven monopolies tend to be short-lived. Some analysts argue that streaming markets evolve too rapidly for any single firm to enjoy durable dominance, citing Amazon Prime Video and Disney+ as formidable competitors.

Outlook: A Deal Facing a Long Regulatory Road

Even if the Justice Department pursues a narrow antitrust case focused solely on streaming subscriptions, Netflix appears prepared to argue that the merger would lower costs, improve efficiency, and create savings through bundling and shared technology infrastructure. Whether those arguments will be enough remains to be seen. With both US and international regulators engaged — and political dynamics adding pressure — the road to approval is likely to be long, complex, and highly contested.