Washington is weighing a significant policy shift that could reopen the door for Nvidia to sell advanced H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, marking a potentially consequential turning point in U.S.–China tech relations. According to people familiar with the matter, the Commerce Department is reviewing whether to ease restrictions that currently bar shipments of Nvidia’s most powerful data-center semiconductors to the Chinese market. The deliberations come amid an unexpected warming of bilateral ties following last month’s trade and technology truce between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

A Possible Break From Years of Strict Export Controls

For the past several years, U.S. policy has centered on preventing China from accessing top-tier AI accelerators, citing concerns that the technology could strengthen Beijing’s military and surveillance systems. The Biden administration imposed sweeping limitations on chip exports, and although the Trump White House has threatened additional measures, many of those restrictions have since been softened or reversed.

The H200 chip sits at the core of the current debate. With significantly more high-bandwidth memory than Nvidia’s H100 and superior data-processing capabilities, the H200 is estimated to be roughly twice as powerful as the H20, which remains the most advanced Nvidia chip legally allowed for China. Allowing H200 shipments would mark a notable easing of current policy and could reshape the competitive dynamics of the global AI hardware market.

Nvidia Pressures Washington as Competitors Gain Ground

Nvidia has repeatedly warned U.S. officials that stringent export controls are hurting its ability to compete in China, the world’s largest single market for AI data-center chips. The company said current rules prevent it from offering a competitive product, creating an enormous opening for rapidly growing foreign competitors. While Nvidia declined to comment directly on the government review, executives have publicly emphasized the commercial and strategic risks of ceding the Chinese market to rivals.

The timing is noteworthy. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whom Trump has publicly praised, attended a White House gathering earlier this week during the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Commerce Department also approved the export of up to 70,000 next-generation Nvidia Blackwell chips to Saudi Arabia’s Humain and the UAE’s G42, signaling a wider reassessment of U.S. technology export policy.

Geopolitical Risk Still Overshadows Potential Policy Shift

Despite the apparent thaw, influential China hawks in Washington remain uneasy. They argue that easing restrictions on advanced AI chips could accelerate China’s military modernization, undermining U.S. national security interests. Their concerns helped shape the original export-control framework, and pushback is expected if the administration moves forward.

At the same time, Beijing continues to wield its own trade leverage. China’s control of rare earth minerals—critical for manufacturing many high-tech components—has influenced the U.S. position in past negotiations. Trump’s earlier threats to impose new tech export curbs were largely rolled back, reflecting the limits of escalating trade penalties in a highly interdependent technology ecosystem.

What Comes Next for the U.S.–China Tech Landscape

If the U.S. grants approval for H200 sales, it would signal a meaningful recalibration of Washington’s stance and potentially reshape global semiconductor supply chains. Investors and industry leaders will now monitor how the Commerce Department finalizes its review, how China responds politically, and whether Washington applies similar flexibility to other high-end technologies. For both countries, the balance between economic opportunity and strategic vulnerability will define the next stage of engagement.