A Crucial Earnings Moment for the World’s Largest Retailer

Walmart will deliver its fiscal third-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday, becoming the most influential gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment as the peak holiday season begins. Wall Street expects earnings of $0.60 per share and revenue of $177.43 billion, according to LSEG consensus estimates. With a customer base spanning every income tier, Walmart’s results will provide a real-time view of how American households are absorbing higher prices, navigating economic uncertainty, and adjusting spending priorities.

The retailer enters the quarter following an unusual headwind: millions of U.S. shoppers reliant on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits saw their aid delayed or disrupted during the weeks-long federal government shutdown. As the country’s largest grocer, Walmart is highly exposed to fluctuations in SNAP spending, making this quarter a potential anomaly in food-category performance.

Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Value, Convenience, and Trade-Down Trends

Walmart remains one of the industry’s biggest beneficiaries of shifting shopper habits. The company has steadily attracted higher-income households seeking relief from elevated grocery prices—a trend amplified by store remodeling efforts and faster fulfillment capabilities. As inflation continues to reshape consumption, Walmart’s breadth of categories allows investors to assess discretionary trends across apparel, beauty, electronics and home goods as well as staples like milk, produce and household essentials.

In August, Walmart raised its full-year guidance, citing stable consumer behavior and resilience across its customer base. CFO John David Rainey reported at the time that the company had not observed significant deterioration in spending patterns. Yet Thursday’s results will be closely compared with cautious updates from Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s, all of which recently lowered full-year profit forecasts amid weakening big-ticket categories and heightened price sensitivity.

Conversely, TJX Companies—owner of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls—raised its outlook, reinforcing the structural shift toward value-focused shopping. Walmart sits at the center of this dynamic: premium consumers are trading down, while lower-income shoppers continue to feel pressure from high living costs.

Leadership Transition Adds New Focus on Strategy

This quarter also carries symbolic weight, as it is Walmart’s first earnings release since announcing a major leadership change. John Furner, CEO of Walmart U.S., will succeed longtime CEO Doug McMillon on February 1. McMillon, who has led Walmart through a decade of e-commerce expansion and rapid modernization, leaves behind a legacy marked by a more than 300% rise in Walmart’s share price.

Investors will scrutinize any comments on strategy continuity, cost structure, labor spending, and capital allocation under the new leadership. With the company’s digital ecosystem now central to growth, analysts expect a continued push into automation, online marketplace expansion, and AI-driven inventory optimization.

What Comes Next for Walmart—and the U.S. Consumer?

Walmart’s results will help set the tone for Q4 positioning across the broader retail sector. If trends in grocery and essentials remain firm, the company may reiterate its view of a resilient consumer. However, any signs of softening discretionary categories, reduced transaction volume, or pressure from SNAP disruptions could signal broader macroeconomic fragility.

For markets already wary of slowing retail demand, Walmart’s report will determine whether recent caution from peers reflects sector-wide weakness—or opportunities unique to the world’s most influential retailer.