President Donald Trump’s proposal to issue $2,000 tariff rebate checks to most Americans now faces a complex path forward, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the payments would require congressional approval. The remarks, made Sunday on Fox News, underscore the political and legal constraints surrounding a policy that has become central to the administration’s message on affordability at a time when voter sentiment remains fragile.

Congressional Hurdles and the Supreme Court’s Oversight

Trump has repeatedly promoted the idea of rebate checks funded by tariff revenue, positioning them as a direct benefit to working households. While the Treasury insists such payments “could go out,” Bessent made clear that legislative authorization is necessary. That hurdle alone makes the likelihood uncertain, especially given persistent disagreements within Congress over the inflationary effects of tariffs.

Compounding the challenge is the Supreme Court’s pending decision on Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose broad tariffs. Several conservative justices have expressed skepticism about the administration’s interpretation of the law, raising the risk that large portions of the tariff regime could be invalidated. Bessent warned that a ruling against the administration could create a windfall for importers rather than consumers, a scenario he argued the Court may prefer to avoid.

The outcome will have major implications for trade policy, federal revenue, and the viability of the rebate proposal itself.

Rare-Earth Talks With China Near a Critical Deadline

Amid legal uncertainty at home, the administration is racing to finalize a trade deal with China on rare-earth minerals—materials critical to electronics, defense systems, and renewable technologies. Bessent said a final agreement is “hopefully” achievable before Thanksgiving, contingent on Beijing reversing export controls imposed earlier this year.

The framework announced in October prevented additional tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods. A durable deal would be vital for stabilizing supply chains still recovering from global disruptions and ongoing geopolitical friction.

Economic Setbacks From Shutdown and Pressure From Food Inflation

The record-length government shutdown, which ended last week, further complicated the economic outlook by delaying key data releases used by the Federal Reserve and investors to assess inflation and labor market trends. Bessent acknowledged the shutdown “set us back,” though he expects a more favorable trajectory in the first half of 2026, with real incomes accelerating as inflation moderates.

In response to rising voter anger over grocery prices, the administration announced meaningful tariff exemptions on agricultural imports, including coffee, bananas, and beef. While some officials insist that tariffs were not the primary driver of food inflation, easing duties is expected to increase supply and contribute to gradual price relief. Yet consumer sentiment remains weak, with the University of Michigan index slipping to 50.3—its lowest level since the summer.

What Comes Next

The coming weeks will determine whether the administration can translate ambitious tariff reforms into tangible economic relief. Investors and households alike will be watching the Supreme Court ruling, the progress of rare-earth negotiations with China, and the fiscal feasibility of rebate checks. If real incomes strengthen as Bessent predicts, confidence may improve—but the policy risks remain considerable, and the path to affordability depends on political consensus that is far from assured.