Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), the tech giant synonymous with the iPhone, could soon define an entirely new frontier: humanoid robotics. According to a new Morgan Stanley report, Apple’s long-term ambitions in robotics could generate as much as $133 billion in annual revenue by 2040, potentially creating the company’s next major growth engine after smartphones and wearables.

The projection underscores Wall Street’s growing belief that Apple is positioning itself to dominate the next phase of consumer technology — intelligent, AI-driven machines designed to interact with humans in homes, offices, and factories.

A $133 Billion Bet on the Future of “Physical AI”

In a detailed research report, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Erik Woodring estimated that Apple could achieve a 9% global market share in humanoid robotics within 15 years, generating more than $130 billion annually. “Leveraging Apple’s massive market share across leading consumer products and services, we conservatively estimate Apple’s robotics revenue could reach $130 billion by 2040 in our median case,” the report stated.

Humanoid robots — once confined to science fiction — are becoming a commercial reality, thanks to advances in generative AI, machine learning, and edge computing. Global technology leaders including Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla are racing to define the emerging “physical AI” category — intelligent machines capable of performing complex, human-like tasks.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently described humanoid robots as a “multi-trillion-dollar opportunity,” emphasizing their potential to reshape labor, logistics, and personal services. Nvidia’s own Isaac Gr00t platform — which combines AI foundation models with the powerful Jetson AGX Thor computer — serves as a development toolkit for next-generation robots.

Tech Giants Enter the Robotics Race

Apple’s rivals are already moving fast. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), for instance, has integrated over 1 million robots into its fulfillment centers worldwide and is testing Agility Robotics’ Digit humanoid for warehouse automation and last-mile delivery. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Optimus robot — part of Elon Musk’s vision to make robots a core component of Tesla’s valuation — is already in early testing across its production lines.

Even Foxconn, Apple’s primary manufacturing partner, has begun deploying humanoid robots at its Nvidia-powered AI server facility in Houston, signaling the early industrial adoption of such technology.

Amid this competitive backdrop, Apple’s entry into robotics could carry enormous weight. The company already possesses the core technologies — advanced sensors, LiDAR, machine vision, and AI integration — honed through its autonomous vehicle project and products like the Vision Pro headset.

Inside Apple’s Robotics Development

According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple is developing a tabletop robotic arm connected to an iPad-style display that can respond to users’ movements and speech — an early step toward more interactive robotic systems.

Morgan Stanley’s report forecasts that by 2040, roughly 415,000 humanoid robots could be sold annually in the U.S., with 1.6 million cumulative units adopted, representing about 1.65% household penetration. The analysts estimate an average selling price of $30,000 per unit, which they expect will decline as production scales.

“Apple’s unique ecosystem of over 2.3 billion active devices, paired with $130 billion in cash reserves, gives it unmatched leverage to enter this market,” Woodring noted. The firm argues that Apple’s seamless hardware-software integration could give it a decisive advantage over industrial-focused rivals.

The Challenges Ahead

Despite the bullish forecasts, experts caution that technical and economic barriers remain significant. Robots still struggle with tasks that require precision, dexterity, and safety — such as handling glassware or navigating cluttered environments. Speed and reliability also lag behind human performance.

Cost remains another key obstacle. At current projections, humanoid robots would cost as much as a small used car, limiting mainstream adoption. “If humanoid robots are going to take off, prices will need to fall dramatically,” Morgan Stanley said.

Moreover, consumer acceptance poses a psychological hurdle. The integration of humanoid robots into households will require public trust — not just in hardware safety, but also in AI ethics and data privacy, areas where Apple has historically differentiated itself.

The Long Game: From iPhone to iRobot

While Apple has yet to confirm any plans for a humanoid robot, the company’s long-term research into autonomy, spatial computing, and artificial intelligence suggests it is preparing for an era beyond the smartphone.

For Apple, the humanoid robotics market could become its next trillion-dollar platform, redefining its identity as a technology company built not just around screens — but around intelligent machines capable of interacting in the physical world.