A Rare Milestone in Tech Market History

The NASDAQ 100, representing the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, has just completed a rare milestone — six consecutive months of gains, a streak seen only six times in the last 40 years. This historical moment, reached in September 2025, provides valuable insight into potential short-term fluctuations and the stronger long-term bullish trend that has historically followed similar streaks.

Only Six Historical Occurrences Since 1986

Since 1986, the NASDAQ 100 has recorded such a six-month rally only in March 1986, July 1999, July 2003, July 2009, April 2017, and now, September 2025. Each of these periods reflected remarkable strength in the technology sector and investor confidence, especially following periods of economic uncertainty. These past events offer a robust data set to evaluate what might lie ahead.

What History Tells Us: 100% Positive Return Rate

An in-depth look at historical returns following these rallies reveals a perfect track record: In all six instances, the NASDAQ 100 posted positive returns after 3, 6, and 12 months. On average, the index gained 7.70% over the following six months and 18.81% over the next year. These figures significantly outpace the historical annual average for the index and suggest that these rallies typically precede substantial long-term upward moves.

Caution: Short-Term Volatility Still Lurks

Despite the strong long-term prospects, the short-term picture is more nuanced. In the first week after the end of previous six-month streaks, the average return was only 0.37%, and in 40% of cases, the index actually declined. Looking out to three weeks, 80% of past cases were positive, but a trend of short-term profit-taking emerged. This pattern is likely the result of investors locking in gains after extended rallies, creating temporary dips before momentum resumes.

Conclusion: Bullish Long-Term, Volatile Short-Term

The historical data is clear: six-month rallies in the NASDAQ 100 tend to be followed by strong, double-digit returns over the next year. However, investors should also be prepared for short-term fluctuations and technical pullbacks, especially as market participants reassess positions.

The NASDAQ 100 continues to act as the epicenter of global tech leadership, and while the current streak may invite caution in the coming weeks, the longer-term outlook remains firmly optimistic. Strategic patience may well be rewarded.