The coming week is set to test investors’ ability to navigate an environment clouded by political gridlock and a patchy economic calendar. With the U.S. government shutdown stretching into another week, the absence of official releases—from trade balances to jobless claims—creates uncertainty for markets that depend heavily on timely data. Investors worldwide are shifting their focus toward central bank communications, private surveys, and global inflation prints to anticipate how policy paths might diverge in the months ahead.

U.S. Focus: Shutdown Politics and Fed Signals

In the United States, attention remains firmly on Washington, where partisan deadlock continues to paralyze federal funding. The Senate’s October 3 vote on rival stopgap bills from both Republicans and Democrats ended without a resolution, signaling that the standoff is unlikely to ease quickly. This means investors may be forced to operate without critical releases such as foreign trade data, weekly jobless claims, and the federal budget statement.

Against this backdrop, markets will turn to the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index, expected to reveal the weakest reading since May, and to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak throughout the week, offering traders rare forward guidance in an otherwise data-dark environment. Private data will play an outsized role, with labor indicators and corporate surveys serving as stopgaps for assessing economic momentum.

European Outlook: ECB Accounts and Industrial Fragility

Across the Atlantic, Europe will provide limited but influential releases. The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are expected to shed light on the institution’s cautious stance after holding rates steady in September. Markets are keen to understand whether policymakers are leaning toward further tightening later this year or maintaining a prolonged pause in response to softening growth.

Germany’s industrial production is forecast to contract despite recent improvements in factory orders, while Eurozone retail sales are expected to post only modest gains. These data points will be closely analyzed for signs of whether the region’s industrial base, still reeling from supply chain disruptions and weak global demand, can stabilize before year-end. Additional figures from Italy, France, and Switzerland, alongside inflation readings in Russia and Turkey, will round out the European economic picture.

Asia-Pacific Watch: Japan’s Leadership Change and RBNZ Decision

In Asia-Pacific, developments range from political to monetary. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to elect a new leader, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepping down following electoral defeats. The leadership outcome will influence fiscal priorities and investor sentiment toward the yen. Japan will also publish a string of indicators—from household spending to producer prices—providing a nuanced snapshot of the world’s third-largest economy.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, underscoring the divergent global policy landscape. Australia will issue consumer confidence and business sentiment surveys, while inflation readings across Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan will highlight the challenges facing emerging Asia.

Outlook for Global Investors

The week ahead offers no shortage of market-moving events, yet uncertainty is amplified by the absence of U.S. government data. Investors will need to weigh fragmented private surveys against central bank rhetoric, balancing hopes for policy support with fears of prolonged political paralysis. With divergent monetary paths between advanced and emerging economies, volatility may rise as traders recalibrate expectations. For investors in both Israel and the U.S., the ability to interpret signals from abroad will be crucial in determining risk positioning and portfolio strategy in the weeks ahead.