A Deal Announced but Not Delivered

In May 2025, the United States and the United Arab Emirates unveiled a high-profile agreement meant to strengthen cooperation in artificial intelligence. Under the arrangement, Abu Dhabi pledged substantial investments into U.S. technology infrastructure, while Nvidia would provide several hundred thousand of its most advanced AI processors annually. The announcement was positioned as a cornerstone of Washington’s push to export AI leadership and limit China’s global influence.

However, five months later the plan has yet to materialize. No UAE investments have been formally recorded, and not a single shipment of chips has gone out. Reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters suggest that Nvidia’s leadership, particularly CEO Jensen Huang, is increasingly frustrated as the deal remains stuck in procedural and political bottlenecks.

Commerce Oversight and Political Dynamics

A central factor in the delay is the role of the U.S. Commerce Department. Secretary Howard Lutnick has reportedly made export authorization conditional upon the UAE first delivering its promised capital. This sequencing has slowed progress and sparked internal disagreements. While Nvidia views the deal as critical for growth, the Commerce Department has adopted a cautious stance, emphasizing security and accountability.

The decision reflects a broader political strategy in Washington: foreign investment must precede sensitive technology exports. This linkage aims to ensure that geopolitical benefits flow back to the U.S. economy, while also establishing leverage in future negotiations with foreign partners.

Security Concerns: The China Factor

Beyond the financial dimension, U.S. officials remain wary of the UAE’s ties with China. At the center of scrutiny is G42, a major Emirati AI company with past connections to Chinese suppliers. Despite recent efforts to pivot toward U.S. partnerships, including investments from Microsoft, regulators are demanding concrete safeguards. The fear is that cutting-edge Nvidia chips could find their way into Chinese systems, undermining U.S. export controls.

Implications for Nvidia and U.S. AI Policy

For Nvidia, the delay postpones a lucrative new market and complicates allocation of scarce GPUs. Yet the broader implications stretch beyond corporate earnings. The deal’s fate could define how the U.S. structures AI partnerships worldwide, particularly with nations balancing relationships between Washington and Beijing.

What to Watch Next

The path forward will depend on whether the UAE delivers its financial commitments and whether Washington accepts security guarantees. Possible compromises include phased shipments or enhanced monitoring of end users. If the deadlock persists, it will highlight the difficulty of exporting U.S. AI technology while maintaining strict national security safeguards.