Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), one of America’s largest and most established retail chains, is once again drawing attention from analysts and institutional investors. With improving earnings forecasts, mixed but leaning-positive analyst sentiment, and potential upside in the stock price, investors are asking whether now is the right time to buy. Here’s what the data reveals.

Average Price Target: $104.73 – Upside of 11.08%

According to forecasts from 30 leading analysts, the average one-year price target for Target stock is $104.73, representing an 11.08% increase from the current price of $94.29. Expectations vary significantly, with the most optimistic projection reaching $155 (a +64.39% increase), while the most conservative forecast calls for a decline to $80, reflecting a potential downside of -15.16%.

Analyst Consensus: Buy – Majority Lean Toward Hold

Over the past three months, 39 analysts have issued ratings for TGT. The consensus remains cautiously optimistic: 11 analysts rated it a “Strong Buy,” while 25 recommended holding. Only 2 analysts issued sell recommendations, with just one labeling it a “Strong Sell.” Overall, the stock is positioned in the “Buy” category on the sentiment meter, signaling moderate confidence relative to peers in the retail sector.

EPS Forecast: Earnings Set to Rebound from 2026

Following a steep drop in 2022, when earnings per share (EPS) fell to $6.02, Target rebounded to $8.94 in 2023. EPS for 2024 is estimated at $8.86, with future forecasts suggesting continued growth: $7.47 in 2025, climbing to $8.17 in 2026 and $8.89 by 2028. The company has consistently outperformed expectations, with EPS surprises of +6.67% in 2023 and +8.99% in 2022.

Revenue Outlook: Stable, Not Explosive

In 2023, Target posted revenue of $107.41 billion, slightly above the estimate of $107.22 billion. For 2024, projected revenue stands at $106.32 billion, with a gradual climb forecasted through 2028, reaching $112.49 billion. This suggests that revenue growth is modest, and earnings improvements are more likely to come from margin optimization rather than top-line expansion.

Latest Analyst Ratings: Mixed Signals with Upside Potential

Greg Melich of Evercore ISI revised his target from $120 to $100, maintained a “Hold” rating, and projected a 6.06% upside.

Paul Lejuez from Citi set a target of $94, slightly below current levels, implying a -0.31% downside.

Joe Feldman at Telsey Advisory downgraded the stock from $130 to $110, yet still anticipates a 16.66% upside.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Financial raised his target from $82 to $90, reiterated a “Hold,” and sees a -4.55% downside.

Peter Benedict from Robert W. Baird reaffirmed his “Buy” rating with a $100 target, representing a 6.06% upside.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo is the most bullish, upgrading his target to $115, suggesting a 21.96% upside—currently the most aggressive projection among top analysts.

What’s Driving the Ratings?

The prevailing analyst sentiment is based on a combination of margin stabilization, solid sales figures, and disciplined cost control. Target’s resilience in volatile periods gives it a competitive edge over other discount retailers. However, concerns remain around operating costs and overall profitability pressure in the current inflationary climate.

Is Now the Time to Invest?

Is Target stock a buy, or is caution still warranted? Based on current pricing and future earnings potential, the stock appears moderately undervalued. While macroeconomic headwinds persist, Target has demonstrated gradual recovery and has retained investor confidence, albeit cautiously.

Bottom Line

With an average upside of 11%, an improving EPS outlook, and a general “Buy” rating from analysts, Target appears to be stabilizing. Yet, the overall tone remains measured. For investors seeking a blend of stability and moderate growth potential, TGT represents a solid medium- to long-term position—especially when factoring in its consistent dividend payouts.