Palantir Technologies is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings today – and investors are bracing for a potential upside surprise.

Palantir Technologies (ticker: PLTR) is expected to report its Q1 2025 results on Monday, May 5, after the market close (4:05 PM ET). According to analysts’ estimates, the company is forecast to post earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $862.89 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 36%.

The unofficial forecast from Earnings Whisper suggests a slightly higher number – $0.15 per share – signaling increased optimism among both retail and institutional investors. The company’s own guidance has set revenue expectations between $858 million and $862 million, a relatively narrow range that suggests strong visibility and operational discipline.

Bullish Sentiment Ahead of the Report

Investor sentiment is notably positive: roughly 72% of market participants believe Palantir will beat expectations. In parallel, short interest has declined by 37.6% since the last earnings release – indicating fewer investors are betting against the stock.

Price action supports that optimism: since the previous earnings announcement, PLTR has gained 20.9% and is currently trading 93.6% above its 200-day moving average of $64.19. This strong rally suggests that much of the market may have already priced in a solid quarter – which also raises the risk of disappointment if results merely meet expectations.

Options Market Signals Volatility

In the options market, traders are pricing in a 14.4% move around earnings – slightly below Palantir’s historical average move of 20.7% in recent quarters.

One notable trade took place on April 16, when 21,729 contracts of the $60.00 put option (expiring May 23) were purchased. The size of this position suggests institutional hedging or directional speculation ahead of the report.

A Political Twist

Alongside financial metrics, recent developments have drawn attention to Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. On April 8, she disclosed a purchase of PLTR shares – just nine days before Palantir was awarded a government contract by ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to develop the “ImmigrationOS” platform.

Greene currently serves on the House Committee on Homeland Security, which has oversight of ICE. The timing of the investment raises questions about potential conflicts of interest. Since her purchase, PLTR shares have surged by nearly 50%.

While U.S. law permits members of Congress to invest in publicly traded companies, transactions close to regulatory, defense, or contract announcements are often subject to public scrutiny – and, in some cases, investigation.

Looking Ahead

Palantir is entering a critical earnings report. The market expects the company to deliver strong growth, driven by existing government contracts, new deals, and strong operational momentum. If the company beats expectations, the focus will immediately shift to whether it can maintain this growth rate into the second half of 2025 – especially given rising interest rates and changes in public sector spending.

Investors will be watching not only for top- and bottom-line results, but also for forward guidance, contract pipeline updates, and progress in international defense markets – a core area for Palantir.