The US week opens with two relatively secondary indicators — the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index on Monday — followed on Tuesday by building permits, housing starts, import/export price indices, and industrial production. The week’s central event arrives Wednesday with the release of the July FOMC minutes, from a meeting where the vote closed 9–3, with three members supporting a rate hike. Since that meeting, a notably weak jobs report has come out, so the minutes will be read mainly through the lens of just how deep that internal disagreement really was. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Leading Economic Index, and the week closes Friday with the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI.

Retail Earnings: The Test for the US Consumer

Alongside the macro data, the week is packed with earnings from major retailers. Home Depot reports Tuesday; Target, Lowe’s, TJX, Estée Lauder, and Analog Devices report Wednesday; and Walmart, Deere, and Ross Stores report Thursday. These results will give investors an updated picture of the US consumer’s health at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above target.

Israel: A Quiet Week on Data

In Israel, by contrast, this is a week without major scheduled macro releases — the CPI was already published on August 15, with the next release not expected until mid-September. In the absence of local data, economic attention is likely to remain focused on the geopolitical front and the question of whether the Iran ceasefire holds.

Europe and the UK: A Dense Data Week

Europe and the UK face a relatively packed data week. Tuesday brings the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment index, Wednesday brings UK CPI, Thursday brings German PPI, and Friday brings UK retail sales alongside the EU flash PMI and EU consumer confidence.

Asia: China’s Rate Decision and Japan’s Inflation

In Asia, Thursday brings China’s Loan Prime Rate decision alongside Japan’s trade balance, and Friday brings Japan’s CPI.

Outlook

The Fed minutes are likely to be the week’s central focus, since they retrospectively dissect a decision made before the weak July jobs report came out, and will therefore mainly reflect the committee’s mood at that moment rather than necessarily signal the path ahead. The retail earnings, by contrast, will provide the real test of whether the US consumer is still absorbing inflation or beginning to show signs of fatigue. In Israel, absent economic data, trading is likely to remain driven mainly by security-related headlines and the durability of the ceasefire.