Key Points

  • Strong technology earnings pushed the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and MSCI All Country Index close to record highs on August 12.
  • U.S. inflation data in line with expectations shifted market pricing toward a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in September.
  • Steeper U.S. Treasury yield curves and a record $432 billion July budget deficit remain important counterweights to the technology-led equity rally.
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Global financial markets moved closer to record territory on August 12 as strong technology earnings and softer expectations for Federal Reserve tightening combined to support risk appetite. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both advanced, while the MSCI All Country Index also approached its all-time high as investors responded positively to U.S. inflation data that was broadly in line with expectations.

Technology Earnings Keep Global Equities Near Records

The latest rally was led by technology and artificial intelligence-related companies, reinforcing the importance of corporate earnings in sustaining the current equity-market advance. The S&P 500 gained about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq rose approximately 0.6%, leaving both benchmarks within close reach of their respective record highs.

Market leadership extended across several AI-linked companies. Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave each surged 19%, while Dell Technologies gained 10%. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with information technology and real estate each gaining about 1%, although communications services and materials declined by roughly 1%.

The breadth of the move suggests that investor enthusiasm was not limited entirely to a single company or narrow group of shares. Nevertheless, the continued prominence of AI-related earnings means expectations surrounding capital expenditure, revenue growth and the eventual return on those investments remain central to the market’s valuation framework.

Inflation Data Shifts Fed Expectations

U.S. consumer inflation data provided an additional tailwind. The latest figures were in line with expectations, while recent labor-market data had already indicated some moderation in economic conditions. Together, the releases reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting.

Before the inflation report, traders were approximately evenly divided between expectations for rates to remain unchanged and a 25-basis-point increase. Following the data, market pricing shifted to roughly 60% in favor of no change. For equity investors, that adjustment is particularly relevant because lower expectations for near-term monetary tightening can support valuations for growth-oriented companies.

The bond market also reflected the changing policy outlook. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2s/10s spread reaching 49 basis points and the 2s/30s spread reaching 107 basis points, both the steepest levels since May. The move reflected buying at the short end alongside continued pressure at longer maturities.

Fiscal Pressure Complicates the Positive Market Picture

Despite the constructive equity backdrop, U.S. fiscal conditions remain an important consideration for global investors. The federal budget deficit reached a record $432 billion in July, nearly 50% wider than in the same month last year. The deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal 2026 has reached approximately $1.8 trillion, already exceeding the full-year 2025 figure.

Gross U.S. national debt is approaching $40 trillion, adding pressure to the Treasury market as the government continues to finance substantial borrowing requirements. Reuters noted that the fiscal position is contributing to pressure at the long end of the bond market and influencing the Treasury’s decision to place more funding into bills.

Other markets also reflected a generally constructive tone. Gold reached a two-month high above $4,400 an ounce, while oil prices were little changed. In foreign exchange, the dollar edged higher and sterling reached a one-month high of $1.3540.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether technology earnings can continue supporting equity valuations while monetary and fiscal pressures evolve. U.S. producer-price data, further Federal Reserve commentary and upcoming Treasury issuance will provide additional signals about inflation, interest rates and long-term borrowing costs. The combination of resilient AI-driven corporate spending, easing expectations for a September rate increase and rising government debt creates a market backdrop in which record highs remain within reach, but where bond-market conditions and the sustainability of technology valuations will remain critical risks to monitor.


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