Cathie Wood sees Elon Musk’s space company as the decade’s greatest investment — with a 40% annual return

Cathie Wood’s investment firm, ARK Invest, released its updated valuation forecast for Elon Musk’s SpaceX this week — and the numbers are impressive even by Wood’s ambitious standards. According to ARK’s base case, the company’s value will soar from its current ~$350 billion to $2.5 trillion by 2030 — a jump of over 700%, translating into an average annual return of nearly 40%.

This bold forecast positions SpaceX as a company worth 15 times more than Boeing, the world’s largest aerospace firm. The projection is based on three major growth drivers: the expansion of Starlink satellite services, the scaling of Starship for defense purposes, and the most ambitious element — the beginning of commercial settlement on Mars.

A Revolutionary Business Model: 80% Operating Margin
The foundation of ARK’s daring forecast lies in its deep understanding of SpaceX’s revolutionary business model. By 2030, ARK predicts SpaceX will generate around $200 billion in annual revenue — most of it, contrary to common belief, not from launches but from satellite communications services.

The centerpiece of this forecast is the Starlink satellite network, which already provides internet to millions of users worldwide via ~7,000 active satellites. What began as a side project has evolved into the primary engine of the company’s future growth. Already, out of SpaceX’s estimated $10 billion in annual revenue, approximately $5 billion comes from Starlink.

The projected profitability is especially impressive: ARK estimates an EBITDA of over $150 billion by 2030 — an operating margin exceeding 80%. Such margins are more typical of software companies than traditional aerospace firms.

The Red Dream: Mars Settlement as an Economic Lever
One of the most unique aspects of ARK’s forecast is the inclusion of the economic value of equipment and operations on Mars. According to the forecast, the value of infrastructure on Mars will reach $1 billion by 2030 — and could rise to $1 trillion by 2040, assuming regular flights to the Red Planet continue.

Musk has already announced his intention to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars in 2026 using the Starship rocket — the largest and most powerful launch system ever built. ARK’s optimistic scenarios assume that Mars flights will become not rare events but routine, unlocking an entirely new market.

Government Support: Redirecting NASA Funds to the Private Sector
The U.S. government provides strong tailwinds for SpaceX. As part of the 2026 budget proposal, the Trump administration is promoting a dramatic $6.3 billion cut to NASA’s budget, alongside the reallocation of hundreds of millions of dollars to the private sector — especially to Mars-focused projects.

This policy shift represents a massive business opportunity for SpaceX. Traditional government programs like SLS, Orion, and the Gateway station are expected to be canceled, with their budgets transferred to more efficient private firms.

Three Scenarios: From $1.7 to $3.1 Trillion
ARK’s forecast is based on three different scenarios, each with its own probability:

Base Case (50% probability): A $2.5 trillion valuation, based on steady growth of Starlink services and the beginning of commercial Mars operations.

Bullish Case (25% probability): A $3.1 trillion valuation, assuming a major breakthrough in space tech and Mars becoming a tourist destination.

Bearish Case (25% probability): A $1.7 trillion valuation, assuming delays in technology or regulatory setbacks.

How to Get Exposure to SpaceX: A Fund With a 559% Premium
Though SpaceX is a private company, investors can gain exposure through the Destiny Tech100 fund (DXYZ), which holds about 52% of its assets in SpaceX. The fund trades on U.S. stock exchanges and has gained immense popularity, especially among younger investor communities.

However, the investment carries significant risk: the fund trades at an extreme 559% premium to its net asset value — a share price of $42.50 compared to a NAV of just $6.44. Since the start of 2025, the fund has dropped by 30%, raising questions about whether such a premium is justified.

Comparison to Tesla: When Politics Overshadow Business
Compared to ARK’s forecast for Tesla, the SpaceX analysis seems more conservative. For Tesla, ARK projects a stock price of $2,600 by 2029 — an 8× increase — based on its future robotaxi business, expected to comprise 90% of its valuation.

The key difference: while Tesla has become more politically charged, SpaceX relies on stronger business fundamentals and growing government support.

Conclusion: Vision or Bubble?
ARK’s forecast for SpaceX raises fundamental questions about innovation and investment in emerging industries. On one hand, the company is showing strong performance, with projected revenues of $15.5 billion this year and positive cash flow from Starlink. On the other, the forecast relies on bold assumptions about markets that don’t yet exist — especially commercial settlement on Mars.

The central question is whether Cathie Wood, known as the “Queen of Growth Stocks,” sees something the market has yet to fully grasp — or whether this is a valuation detached from reality. The answer will become clearer over the next five years, as SpaceX must prove whether its vision can turn into a profitable economic reality.