U.S. CPI for April: Expectations Are Stable, But Uncertainty Looms

Ahead of the Release: Will Trump’s Tariffs Start Showing in the Data?

Today, Tuesday, May 13, 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is set to be released—a key event for markets watching for signs of inflationary pressures, especially those related to recent trade policies announced by President Trump.

According to consensus estimates, headline inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% year-over-year, in line with March’s reading. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to stay flat at 2.8% annually and 0.3% monthly. While these figures appear stable, analysts warn that early signs of tariff-related inflation may already begin to surface.

Stable Projections, But Focus on Specific Components

Leading banks including Bank of America, Citi, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley project inflation at 2.3%, while JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Deutsche Bank remain at 2.4%.

Beyond the headline figures, investors are focusing on key categories like automobiles, where price increases are already being felt due to import restrictions. According to UBS’s chief economist, “We expect to see the first signs of tariff-related inflation in the April CPI.”

Trump’s Tariffs: Is Inflation Heading Higher?

In April, President Trump announced a wide-ranging set of tariffs, branding the move as “Economic Liberation Day.” However, just a week later, he issued a 90-day suspension for all countries except China. A 10% baseline tariff remains in effect. While the broader impact is expected to play out in the coming months, some analysts believe we may already see movement in April’s numbers.

“This is likely the first month where we start to detect impacts, particularly in the auto sector,” said Bank of America. The temporary pause in China tariffs may help ease pressure in the near term, but overall inflation trends are still expected to rise.

What Will the Fed Do?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a recent press conference, “We’re not yet seeing the need to change policy, but the risks of higher unemployment and inflation have increased.” The Fed is watching closely, but for now, prefers to wait for clearer signals before making adjustments.

Summary: Stable CPI Expected, But Markets Remain On Edge

Markets are anticipating an April CPI print nearly identical to March’s—but the environment is far from predictable. Any surprise—up or down—could shift short-term market sentiment. With signs of category-specific price pressures and a shifting regulatory backdrop, April’s CPI could turn from a routine release into a pivotal summer outlook indicator.