Is Oil’s Calm Before the Storm Signaling Stability—or Concealing Risk?

Oil prices hover in a tight band, with Brent at $67.18/bbl and WTI near $63.73/bbl, despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Russian exports recently dipped to a four-week low due to logistical constraints, but rising output from U.S. shale and Middle East producers has offset the shortfall. Analysts warn that while the market looks balanced now, structural fragility remains.

OPEC+ Factor and Investor Positioning
The alliance faces tough decisions ahead. With demand growth forecasts trimmed for 2025, some members advocate for deeper cuts to prevent oversupply. Meanwhile, hedge funds have scaled back net long positions, suggesting limited confidence in a near-term rally.

Macro Watch
The upcoming U.S. jobs report could influence oil indirectly through the dollar. A softer dollar boosts oil purchasing power globally, while a stronger greenback caps gains.

Forward View
Traders should monitor OPEC+ signals, hurricane season, and China’s industrial data. Oil may seem calm, but fundamentals suggest an imminent breakout—direction unknown.