A Sharp Decline in Revenue – But a Potential Reversal Ahead

Intel Corporation (Ticker: INTC), once the undisputed leader of the global semiconductor industry, has faced a series of financial and operational setbacks over recent years. From losing market share to AMD and Apple, to delays in advanced chip development and manufacturing, Intel’s revenue performance has reflected the turbulence in its strategic positioning.

In 2022, the company generated $63.05 billion in revenue, but this figure turned out to be a short-lived peak. In 2023, revenue dropped to $54.23 billion, and further declined to $53.10 billion in 2024. That’s a nearly 16% contraction over just two years, driven largely by falling PC demand, slower enterprise data center growth, and intensified competition from ARM-based solutions and fabless rivals like NVIDIA.

2025 Outlook: A Bottom Before the Climb?

Projections for 2025 suggest that Intel may hit its revenue low point, with forecasts estimating $50.64 billion – a further ~5% decline compared to the prior year. However, this dip may also represent a turning point.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has initiated a multi-year turnaround plan. This includes building advanced fabs in the U.S. and Europe, launching AI-centric chip lines, and expanding its Intel Foundry Services to manufacture chips for third-party clients. These strategic shifts form the foundation for a potential rebound in both revenue and relevance.

2026–2028: A Gradual Return to Growth

According to analysts’ forecasts, Intel is poised to resume revenue growth starting in 2026. The projected figures are:

2026: ~$53.39 billion

2027: ~$57.29 billion

2028: ~$68.00 billion

If these estimates are realized, Intel would achieve a compound revenue growth of over 34% from the 2025 trough to 2028. This rebound would signal a meaningful recovery in Intel’s top-line performance, positioning the company to compete again on both scale and technology – particularly in areas like AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and automotive chips.

What’s Driving the Optimism?

1. Intel Foundry Model

One of Intel’s most ambitious pivots is its entry into the foundry business, challenging TSMC and Samsung by offering chip manufacturing to third-party clients. Early partnerships with companies like Amazon and Qualcomm could turn into multi-billion dollar engagements – provided Intel can deliver on time and at scale.

2. AI Accelerator Chips

With the launch of its Gaudi series, Intel is targeting the booming AI and machine learning infrastructure market. While NVIDIA currently dominates, Intel is positioning its chips as a cost-effective alternative for cloud data centers, potentially unlocking new revenue streams.

3. Government Incentives and Policy Tailwinds

U.S. and EU government initiatives – including the CHIPS Act – are backing Intel with subsidies and long-term contracts. These not only reduce capital risk but also provide strategic support to secure local semiconductor production.

Key Risks Still in Play

Despite positive forecasts, Intel faces ongoing challenges that should not be underestimated:

Technological Lag Behind TSMC: Intel is still catching up in process node leadership, trailing TSMC by 2–3 years in advanced lithography.

NVIDIA’s AI Dominance: The GPU market for AI remains NVIDIA’s stronghold. Intel must prove that it can deliver real-world performance at scale.

Cyclical Market Sensitivity: Global slowdowns in cloud capex or broader macroeconomic weakness could derail the expected revenue recovery.

Bottom Line: A Comeback in the Making?

So is this a true comeback or just another restructuring cycle? The numbers suggest that Intel is on the right path, with 2025 marking a possible inflection point. While revenue has declined sharply from 2022 to 2025, projections for 2026–2028 show a clear upward trend, culminating in an estimated $68 billion by the end of the decade – potentially Intel’s highest in over 10 years.

To succeed, Intel will need to execute flawlessly across its product roadmap, manufacturing goals, and strategic partnerships. The coming years will be critical in determining whether Intel can reclaim its place at the forefront of the global semiconductor race.