INTC jumps over 8% after DoD cybersecurity shift and renewed U.S.-China trade talks overshadow Apple’s exit

Intel’s stock (NASDAQ: INTC) surged more than 7.8% on June 10th, defying expectations in the wake of Apple’s official announcement that it will discontinue support for Intel-based Macs starting with the next version of macOS, named Tahoe. Despite this seemingly negative catalyst, a combination of geopolitical developments and new momentum from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) turned what could have been a bleak day into a surprising win for the chipmaker.

End of an Era: Apple Ends Official Intel Support for macOS

Apple confirmed that macOS Tahoe will be the last version of its operating system to support Intel processors. While users of older Macs, including MacBook Pro, iMac, and Mac Pro models, will still receive the Tahoe update, they will not have access to Apple Intelligence – the company’s newly announced AI platform, which is built exclusively for Apple Silicon.

This move marks the conclusion of a five-year transition, during which Apple progressively moved away from Intel in favor of its own chips. Though expected, the formal announcement underscores Intel’s shrinking relevance in the high-end consumer desktop segment and closes a significant chapter in its long-standing relationship with Apple.

Trade Winds Shift: U.S.-China Talks Boost Semiconductor Sentiment

So, why did Intel’s stock skyrocket on a day marked by customer loss? The answer lies in a broader wave of optimism sweeping the semiconductor sector. Renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations are fueling hopes that export restrictions on chip technology could be relaxed. This shift has brought a halo effect to U.S. chipmakers, with Intel among the primary beneficiaries due to its exposure to global markets.

Investors are betting that any easing of geopolitical tensions could revitalize demand for Intel’s processors in China, a key market where sales have been constrained by regulatory headwinds over the past several years.

Pentagon Partnership: DoD Eyes Intel for Cybersecurity Framework

In a parallel development, Intel received a major boost from the Department of Defense, which announced plans to release “operational technology-specific zero trust guidance.” This refers to a framework for cybersecurity protocols in mission-critical defense systems – such as weapons platforms, sensor networks, and shipyard operations.

Intel’s federal Chief Technology Officer confirmed that the company is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping and supplying the hardware backbone for this initiative. The announcement positions Intel as a potential key partner in the DoD’s push to modernize its infrastructure, aligning with the company’s ambitions to expand in government and defense markets.

Analyst Sentiment: Still Neutral Despite the Pop

While investors cheered Tuesday’s developments, Wall Street remains cautious. According to recent data, INTC stock holds a Hold consensus rating, with just 1 Buy, 26 Holds, and 4 Sells from analysts in the past 90 days. The average price target sits at $21.29, implying about 3.9% downside from current levels.

This indicates that, despite the excitement, professional analysts are still waiting to see tangible improvements in Intel’s operational performance and competitive positioning.

Turning the Ship: Lip-Bu Tan’s Vision for Reinvention

Despite the lukewarm analyst ratings, some contrarian voices see upside potential. One such investor, operating under the pseudonym Oakoff Investments, describes the current share price as “too depressed to justify,” calling it a compelling buy for long-term value investors.

At the center of this optimism is new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, a veteran of the semiconductor industry known for driving innovation. Tan is attempting to revamp Intel’s corporate culture, shifting away from bureaucratic bloat and toward an engineering-first mindset. His plan includes major cost restructuring, including a 20% workforce reduction—focused primarily on non-technical staff—while preserving core R&D capabilities.

Betting on AI and Foundry: High Risk, High Reward

Intel’s growth ambitions are currently tied to three pillars: AI, data centers, and foundry services. New server platforms like Granite Rapids and Clearwater Forest aim to halt the company’s declining market share, while upcoming nodes like 18A are expected to launch with internal products before expanding to external clients.

The foundry business, which has been generating significant losses, is the company’s biggest wildcard. However, Tan’s decision to launch with internal validation and partnerships with firms like Synopsys and Cadence gives the strategy more credibility than in previous cycles. Intel is targeting break-even in its foundry unit by FY2027.

Conclusion: Temporary Surge or Lasting Recovery?

Intel’s unexpected rally reflects a rare intersection of macro optimism, government partnerships, and fresh leadership. While the company continues to face headwinds in consumer tech, its evolving position in defense, AI, and industrial applications may offer a path forward.

Still, for this momentum to translate into sustainable upside, Intel will need to deliver consistent execution, technological breakthroughs, and operational efficiency—something it has struggled with in recent years. For now, the market is cautiously optimistic, but the ball is in Intel’s court.