Highlights:

  • Core CPI creeps toward 3%, headline inflation stabilizes near 2.8%.

  • Price pressures in housing and services remain persistent.

  • Rate-cut expectations fade as policymakers weigh risks.

Inflation Dynamics Shift Slowly

July inflation data shows no major relief for the Federal Reserve. Core CPI rose to around 2.9%, while headline inflation held steady at 2.7–2.8%. Key drivers include housing, medical services, and energy volatility.

Fed’s Policy Dilemma Intensifies

With inflation stubborn and growth strong, the Fed faces a complex policy environment. Cutting rates too soon could reignite inflation expectations, while maintaining restrictive policy risks slowing investment and housing markets further.

Outlook for Investors

Markets now price fewer rate cuts for 2025. Equity investors remain sensitive to any surprise in upcoming CPI prints. Fixed-income strategies may need to adjust for prolonged higher yields.

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