The latest OECD Economic Outlook report (June 2025) outlines a mixed trajectory for global GDP growth across G20 nations, projecting a gradual slowdown in developed economies alongside resilient performance in several emerging markets. While countries such as India, Indonesia, and China are expected to continue outperforming, major European economies and Japan are forecasted to underdeliver. This article analyzes the actual GDP data for 2024 and forecasts for 2025 and 2026 based on the OECD projections.

India Remains the Global Growth Engine

India continues to solidify its position as the global economic growth leader. With a real GDP increase of 6.2% in 2024 and projected growth rates of 6.3% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, India demonstrates a strong domestic demand base and policy consistency. Government investments in infrastructure, digitalization, and manufacturing are playing a central role in sustaining this momentum.

Indonesia also shows robust figures, maintaining a 5.0% growth in 2024, followed by 4.7% in both 2025 and 2026. China, despite ongoing structural adjustments and property sector concerns, is forecasted to maintain a respectable trajectory—slightly declining from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2026.

G20 Growth Slows, but Remains Stable

Aggregate GDP growth for the G20 nations stood at 3.4% in 2024 and is projected to ease to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. This modest deceleration reflects tighter monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and fiscal normalization across advanced economies. Notably, Türkiye continues to outperform expectations, with projected growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026—highlighting strong domestic consumption and improving financial conditions.

United States: Gradual Deceleration

The United States—the world’s largest economy—is forecasted to slow from 2.8% growth in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. The Federal Reserve’s sustained tightening cycle is weighing on consumer credit and housing activity. Despite the deceleration, the U.S. economy remains more resilient compared to its European counterparts, supported by stable employment and continued technological investment.

Europe’s Economic Malaise: Germany in Reverse Gear

Europe continues to underperform relative to global peers. Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, contracted by 0.2% in 2024 and is forecasted to grow just 0.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. France and the United Kingdom posted modest growth of 1.1% and 0.5% respectively in 2024. Italy and Japan remain weak performers, with Japan forecasted to expand by only 0.7% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 despite modest improvements.

Latin America: Contrasting Paths for Brazil and Argentina

Brazil posted a respectable 3.4% growth in 2024 but is expected to decelerate to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. In contrast, Argentina, which contracted by 1.7% in 2024, is forecasted to rebound sharply with 5.2% growth in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. This sharp turnaround is largely attributed to fiscal stabilization efforts and international financial support aimed at reversing years of volatility.

Mixed Outlook for Other Emerging Markets

Russia’s growth is projected to decline from 4.3% in 2024 to just 0.7% by 2026, reflecting the weight of prolonged sanctions and economic isolation. South Korea shows stable growth between 1.0% and 2.2%, while Mexico remains sluggish with growth projections around 0.4%-1.1%. Saudi Arabia is forecasted to recover from a dip in 2024 (1.8%) to 2.5% by 2026, driven by renewed oil production capacity and Vision 2030 investments.

Forward Outlook: Challenges and Divergence

The global growth map is increasingly polarized. Emerging economies like India, Indonesia, and Argentina are poised to attract greater capital inflows, offering faster returns and demographic advantages. Conversely, many OECD countries face structural constraints, aging populations, and subdued productivity.

As global monetary conditions normalize and supply chain realignments continue, investors and policymakers alike will need to recalibrate strategies—shifting focus from legacy markets to dynamic emerging ones. The data from the OECD’s June 2025 forecast paints a clear picture: growth is moving East and South.