AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) has been one of the most closely watched stocks in 2025, delivering a remarkable 124% year-to-date gain while still operating deep in the red. The company, aiming to build the first space-based cellular broadband network, is balancing strong forward-looking revenue projections with persistent net losses — a dynamic that has drawn both excitement and skepticism from investors.

Stock Market Performance

ASTS shares began 2025 trading near $21 but have more than doubled, reaching a 52-week high of $60.06 on July 24. This surge was fueled by heightened investor optimism over the company’s ability to accelerate satellite deployment and commercial partnerships. However, the rally was followed by a pullback, with the stock settling around $48.50, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $17.4 billion. Such volatility reflects a mix of speculative enthusiasm and lingering uncertainty over the execution pace of its ambitious rollout plan.

Earnings Profile and Forecasts

The financial track record shows a company still far from profitability. In 2024, AST SpaceMobile reported a loss per share (EPS) of $1.94, a widening gap compared to the $1.07 loss in 2023, underscoring rising capital expenditures. The 2025 forecast calls for a smaller $0.97 loss, with analysts projecting a sharp turnaround by 2027 and 2028 — $0.53 and $3.30 EPS respectively. These forecasts imply significant margin expansion within just a few years, contingent on achieving operational and commercial scale.

Revenue Trends

Revenue growth has been uneven. The company posted $12.4 million in revenue in 2021 and $13.82 million in 2022, followed by no reported revenue in 2023. In 2024, AST SpaceMobile recorded $4.42 million, falling short of estimates by nearly 15%. Projections for the coming years are aggressively bullish, with revenue expected to jump to $58.7 million in 2025, $278.4 million in 2026, and exceeding $2 billion by 2028. The forecasted surge hinges on the acceleration of large-scale satellite deployments and securing strategic contracts with global telecom operators.

Earnings and Revenue Surprises

Historically, the company’s performance against analyst expectations has been volatile. EPS misses exceeded 14% in both 2021 and 2022, with a deeper 29% shortfall in 2023. On the revenue side, the company beat forecasts by 34.8% in 2021 but underperformed by nearly 15% in 2024. These swings highlight the execution risk inherent in ASTS’s growth story.

Outlook

The central challenge for AST SpaceMobile lies in proving it can pivot from heavy losses to profitability in just three years. Success will require flawless execution of its satellite deployment schedule and securing high-value, recurring commercial partnerships. For investors, any operational update — whether related to launch timelines, contract wins, or revenue milestones — is likely to trigger sharp moves in the stock, making ASTS a high-beta play on the future of space-based telecom infrastructure.