Three Key Takeaways

• Applovin shares are up 22% year-to-date, despite sharp volatility in early 2025.
• The company has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, with a 21.9% EPS surprise last quarter.
• Long-term forecasts show accelerating growth in both revenue and profitability through 2028.

Stock Performance Year-to-Date

Applovin (NASDAQ: APP) has delivered a 22.17% increase in 2025, with the stock currently trading at $417.55 and a market capitalization of approximately $139.6 billion. The share price journey has been turbulent: the stock surged to over $500 in January, dropped sharply to near $250 by March–April, and then steadily recovered back above $400 in recent weeks. This pattern underscores the market’s sensitivity to expectations, while also reflecting investor confidence in Applovin’s ability to sustain growth.

Earnings and Revenue vs. Market Expectations

In its most recent quarter, Applovin reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.39, well above the consensus estimate of $1.96 — a 21.94% positive surprise. Revenue came in at $1.26 billion, also exceeding forecasts of $1.22 billion. This consistent trend of outperforming expectations has bolstered investor sentiment and contributed to the strong recovery in the share price.

Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $2.35 and revenue of $1.34 billion for the next quarter. If Applovin maintains its record of positive surprises, the stock may continue to climb despite its already elevated valuation.

Profitability Trends and Forward Outlook

Applovin’s earnings trajectory highlights a clear growth story. After posting losses in 2022, the company has shifted toward robust profitability:

2024: EPS of $4.53.

2025 (forecast): EPS of $9.18.

2027: EPS projected at $16.56.

2028: EPS forecasted to surge to $23.27.

Revenue growth mirrors this trend. Sales grew from $2.82 billion in 2022 to $4.71 billion in 2024, with projections of $10.16 billion by 2028. This more than doubling of top-line revenue within four years underlines the company’s aggressive expansion strategy and its strengthening monetization model.

Does the Stock Reflect the Business Reality?

On balance, the company’s fundamentals appear to justify the stock’s premium valuation.

Positive factors: consistent earnings beats, accelerating growth in both revenue and EPS, and bullish long-term projections.

Risks: extreme volatility earlier this year and a relatively high P/E ratio of 59.31, which suggests much of the anticipated growth is already priced in.

In short, Applovin’s share price is not disconnected from reality — it reflects the company’s impressive performance — but it also carries a valuation premium driven by lofty investor expectations.

Forward-Looking Perspective

Applovin is at a pivotal stage. The company is executing strongly, scaling its revenues, and expanding profitability at a rapid pace. However, the current valuation leaves little room for error. Any slowdown in growth or missed forecasts could lead to a swift correction. Investors are not only pricing in today’s earnings power but also banking heavily on sustained momentum through the second half of the decade.

This makes Applovin a fascinating case study: a high-growth business with fundamentals that justify its rally — but also one where expectations set an exceptionally high bar for future performance.