EU–Russia Trade in 2025: How Energy Shifts Are Reshaping Economic Ties

Highlights:

• EU imports from Russia dropped to €7 billion in Q2 2025, while exports rose to €7.5 billion, creating a €0.5 billion trade surplus.

• Energy imports, particularly natural gas, fell sharply, reflecting the EU’s diversification strategy.

• Russia continues to dominate EU fertilizer imports, holding a 34% market share.

• The EU’s trade balance with Russia has moved from deficit to surplus, driven by reduced energy dependence and growing exports.

Trade Balance Turns Positive Amid Energy Transformation

In the second quarter of 2025, the European Union reported a €0.5 billion trade surplus with Russia, marking a significant turnaround from years of persistent deficits. This reversal stems largely from a sharp decline in energy imports from Russia, coupled with modest increases in EU exports to the Russian market. The shift highlights the EU’s ongoing strategic push to reduce reliance on Russian energy, while still maintaining selective trade flows in other sectors.

Sharp Decline in Energy Imports

The EU’s energy imports from Russia have contracted dramatically. Natural gas imports fell from 48% of the EU’s total gas supply in early 2021 to just 12% by the second quarter of 2025. Similarly, Russian petroleum oil’s share in EU imports decreased from 29% to only 2% over the same period. This decline is primarily due to a combination of EU sanctions, aggressive energy diversification strategies, and increased sourcing from alternative suppliers such as the United States, Norway, and other global partners.

This shift represents a fundamental change in the EU’s energy landscape. Policymakers and investors are closely monitoring the implications, as reduced dependency on Russian energy may enhance European energy security but could also pose short-term logistical and cost challenges.

Fertilizers Remain a Key Import

While energy imports have fallen sharply, Russia remains a dominant supplier of fertilizers to the EU. In the second quarter of 2025, Russia accounted for 34% of the EU’s total fertilizer imports, up from 28% in early 2021. Fertilizers have largely escaped EU sanctions, allowing Russian producers to maintain a strong presence.

This sector underscores the nuanced nature of EU–Russia trade relations. Even as the EU reduces reliance on energy, certain essential commodities continue to flow from Russia, reflecting the complexity of global supply chains and the limited availability of alternative sources in specific markets.

EU Exports to Russia Show Modest Growth

At the same time, EU exports to Russia have experienced a slight increase. EU shipments rose to €7.5 billion in Q2 2025, up from €7 billion in the previous quarter. This trend demonstrates that despite geopolitical tensions and sanctions, European businesses continue to find opportunities in Russian markets, particularly in sectors such as machinery, chemicals, and consumer goods.

The increase in exports also reflects strategic market adjustments by EU companies seeking to maintain revenue streams and capitalize on demand for high-quality European products, even in a politically sensitive environment.

Strategic Implications and Future Outlook

The evolving EU–Russia trade dynamic signals a broader realignment of economic ties. The EU’s planned elimination of Russian gas imports by 2028 exemplifies a long-term commitment to energy diversification and reduced vulnerability to geopolitical pressures.

However, risks remain. Key sectors such as fertilizers, where Russia retains a dominant position, could create dependencies that complicate the EU’s strategic goals. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions may affect trade negotiations, investor confidence, and market stability.

Looking forward, monitoring the balance between energy independence, strategic exports, and critical imports will be essential for EU policymakers and businesses alike. The trajectory of trade relations with Russia will continue to reflect the interplay of economic pragmatism, political strategy, and market realities.