Is Natural Gas the Fuel of the Future? Exxon Mobil Sees Demand Rising Through 2050

Highlights

• Exxon Mobil projects global natural gas demand will grow more than 20% by 2050.

• Oil demand is expected to plateau after 2030 but remain above 100 million barrels per day.

• Fossil fuels could still account for 55% of the global energy mix mid-century.

• Rising demand raises concerns over carbon emissions overshooting UN climate targets.

Energy Outlook: Gas Moves to the Forefront

Exxon Mobil has released a long-term outlook forecasting that global natural gas demand will climb by more than 20% by 2050. According to the company, much of the growth will come from developing countries, where gas is increasingly used to replace coal in power generation and industry. Exxon frames natural gas as a “transition fuel,” noting its lower carbon intensity compared to coal.

At the same time, global oil consumption is projected to plateau in the early 2030s but remain structurally high at more than 100 million barrels per day through mid-century. The company expects oil and natural gas combined will continue to represent around 55% of the world’s energy supply in 2050.

Balancing Growth with Climate Goals

While natural gas may help reduce emissions relative to coal, Exxon’s forecast underscores a sharp contrast with international climate objectives. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and United Nations have consistently warned that to meet net-zero targets, global fossil fuel use must fall far more steeply. Exxon itself cautioned that on the current trajectory, carbon dioxide emissions would remain more than double the level needed to meet the UN’s 2050 benchmark.

For policymakers and energy investors, this raises difficult trade-offs between affordability, security of supply, and emissions reduction. Developing economies, in particular, face pressure to expand reliable power systems while navigating stricter climate expectations from global institutions.

Strategic Implications for the Energy Industry

Exxon’s outlook provides a clear rationale for its own long-term investment strategy, which continues to emphasize both traditional oil and gas projects and emerging carbon-capture technologies. The company has argued that without continued fossil fuel development, markets risk energy shortages and price instability, which could undermine global economic growth.

Other major producers and OPEC members share similar views, projecting robust demand for hydrocarbons even as renewable energy scales up. Industrial metals, batteries, and hydrogen technologies are expected to expand rapidly, but Exxon stresses that these will not displace fossil fuels entirely in the next 25 years.

What Comes Next?

The debate over natural gas’s role in the global energy transition will remain central for governments, investors, and consumers alike. While Exxon Mobil sees long-lasting demand, critics argue that relying on gas risks locking in carbon emissions well beyond safe limits.

Key developments to monitor include:

• The pace of renewable energy adoption and battery storage capacity.

• Climate policies from the U.S., EU, and China that could accelerate fossil fuel phase-outs.

• OPEC’s production strategies and how they intersect with shifting global demand.

For now, Exxon’s forecast suggests natural gas will remain a cornerstone of the global energy system through 2050, shaping investment flows, trade balances, and climate negotiations for decades ahead.