A Historic Turning Point—Gold and Bitcoin Dominate Global Returns

2025 has emerged as a milestone year for global financial markets, with two of the world’s most iconic “store-of-value” assets—gold (GLD) and bitcoin (BTC)—battling for the top spot in year-to-date performance. As of July 11, new data compiled by Charlie Bilello (via YCharts) shows gold up nearly 28% and bitcoin up over 26% since the start of the year, far outpacing all other major asset classes. For the first time since records began, gold and bitcoin occupy the #1 and #2 positions together—an occurrence never previously seen in any single calendar year. This raises crucial questions: what is driving these outsized returns, and what does this mean for both private and institutional investors navigating an uncertain world?

The Numbers and Trends Defining 2025

The latest asset class return table (2011–2025 YTD) paints a striking picture. Gold (GLD) has gained 27.7% so far in 2025, while bitcoin (BTC) is up 25.9%. A look at historical returns reveals just how rare this is: bitcoin has often led the pack in recent years—particularly during crypto booms like 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021—while gold has typically served as a defensive asset, shining in periods of volatility but rarely outperforming during broad market rallies.

Notably, 95% of all tracked asset classes are in positive territory this year—a sign of a broad-based rally, but also a potential signal of risk-on sentiment with a cautious undertone. While equities and bonds are both up, nothing matches the returns seen in gold and bitcoin—assets that traditionally sit at opposite ends of the risk and volatility spectrum.

Gold’s Rise: Navigating Uncertainty, Inflation, and Geopolitics

Gold’s stellar performance in 2025 comes against a backdrop of persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks: ongoing political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe, declining confidence in global bond and currency markets, stubborn inflation, and a clear pivot by conservative investors seeking refuge outside of traditional equities.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a relatively hawkish rate stance, but inflation remains above target and economic forecasts are marked by high uncertainty. Added to this, geopolitical tensions—especially between the U.S., China, and Russia, with periodic energy supply shocks—have sent demand for safe havens soaring.
As a result, gold’s limited supply and renewed institutional demand (including from pension funds and even central banks) have propelled it to record highs.

Bitcoin’s Boom: Regulation, Institutional Adoption, and “Digital Gold” Status

In parallel, bitcoin’s resurgence is fueled by a combination of growing regulatory acceptance, the launch of major U.S. spot ETFs, and a flood of institutional money into crypto markets. Leading banks and global asset managers are increasingly treating bitcoin as a partial substitute for gold, especially in long-term allocation models.

The “digital gold” narrative has strengthened thanks to bitcoin’s hard supply cap (21 million coins), lack of dependence on any central authority, and deep, liquid global markets. Despite its volatility, bitcoin’s relative stability in 2025 has encouraged new inflows from conservative investors—not just the traditional crypto enthusiasts and risk-takers.

Comparisons: Equities, Bonds, Real Estate, and Commodities

Compared to gold and bitcoin, other major asset classes have posted moderate but positive gains. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up just 7% YTD, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 8.4%, and developed-market equities (EFA) 10.6%. U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD) returned only 0.9%, while emerging market debt (EMB) is up 5.8%. Even “hybrid” and alternative assets—convertible bonds, REITs, and commodities—lag far behind the twin returns of gold and bitcoin.

The result: investors are not betting on a dramatic economic boom, but rather seeking diversification, alternative hedges, and “uncorrelated” assets that may hold up in a shifting macro landscape.

Strategic Analysis: The Implications for Private and Institutional Investors

The fact that gold and bitcoin are leading the field sends a powerful message about investor psychology in 2025: concerns about persistent inflation, doubts over global stability, and a strong appetite for assets resistant to traditional market shocks. This reality is likely to influence risk management and asset allocation strategies, prompting both individuals and institutions to rethink their mix of growth, defensive, and alternative holdings.

For pension funds and long-term investors, the rise of bitcoin alongside gold presents a fundamental question about portfolio construction and the appropriate balance between legacy and digital “store-of-value” assets.
However, these gains also raise a caution: with both assets trading at or near record highs, the risk of “chasing the top” and the possibility of bubble dynamics—especially in crypto—cannot be ignored.

Historical Perspective: Have Gold and Bitcoin Ever Led Together?

A review of annual asset class leaders (2011–2025) underscores just how unusual this year is. Bitcoin has been the highest returning asset in 8 out of the last 15 years, while gold has only led once (2011) and generally plays a supporting role. The simultaneous dominance of both signals a rare alignment of investor fears—about fiat debasement, policy mistakes, and a search for alternative, limited-supply assets.

What Might Change the Trend?

Future moves in central bank policy, a resolution of geopolitical hotspots, or a decisive improvement in macroeconomic confidence could all shift the landscape. If inflation pressures ease or global stability returns, equities and bonds might regain their shine. For now, however, the crowding into gold and bitcoin is both a reflection and reinforcement of prevailing uncertainty.