Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, set to begin in six hours, could significantly influence global markets—once they reopen. With U.S. markets closed for the holiday and global exchanges paused over the weekend, traders are now bracing for a highly reactive opening session.

Oil May Drop — Cautiously

Oil prices surged nearly 18% during the recent conflict. If the ceasefire holds, traders expect a pullback in crude prices, though the move may be limited due to the temporary 12-hour nature of the deal. Energy markets will remain sensitive to any indication of renewed violence.

Risk Assets Could Rally: Tech, Finance, and Industrials

Once trading resumes, investors are likely to re-enter higher-risk equities. Technology and financial stocks could benefit from improved sentiment, while energy stocks may face some short-term correction. Defense contractors, which rose during the conflict, may come under pressure.

Bonds and Currencies: Watch for a Shift in Safe-Haven Demand

If the ceasefire is perceived as credible, safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar may weaken, while the euro, pound, and shekel may gain. On the other hand, if doubts about the deal arise, investors will rush back to safety, boosting bonds and the greenback.

Index Outlook: Green Open – If Peace Holds

Markets in Tel Aviv, Frankfurt, London, and eventually Wall Street are expected to open higher, assuming no violation of the ceasefire occurs before markets resume. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as headlines evolve.

Final Thought

Investors are poised for cautious optimism. A successful ceasefire could ease geopolitical fears and spark short-term rallies. However, this optimism remains fragile—any renewed violence could reverse gains just as quickly as they come.