Oil prices held modest gains on December 3, 2025, as investors assessed supply risks from renewed conflict in Eastern Europe and persistent volatility in Venezuelan exports. Global demand concerns and geopolitical tensions continued to shape market sentiment, resulting in cautious trading and limited price movements for both Brent and WTI crude.

Supply Disruption and Geopolitical Risks

Brent crude rose slightly to $62.91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $59.24. The modest gains followed drone strikes in Ukraine targeting Russian energy infrastructure, which briefly raised concerns over potential supply constraints. Despite limited disruption to pipeline flows, refinery throughput reductions over recent months highlighted vulnerability in the global energy network. Meanwhile, Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain stalled, sustaining uncertainty over sanctions and their impact on energy exports. Analysts note that these developments keep a geopolitical risk premium in place, supporting oil prices despite mixed global demand signals.

Venezuelan Exports and Market Balance

Venezuelan oil exports reached approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, marking one of the highest monthly averages in 2025. Strong flows to China, along with secondary deliveries to Cuba and other regions, have maintained a steady supply of Venezuelan crude despite heightened U.S. pressure. This additional supply may offset some short-term disruption risks from Russia, but markets remain cautious given potential sanctions adjustments or infrastructure disruptions. Investors are closely monitoring both Venezuelan and Russian supply channels to assess near-term impacts on global crude balances.

Demand Outlook and Market Sentiment

While supply-side factors provided support, oil prices were restrained by concerns over softening demand. Rising inventories in the U.S. and mixed signals from major economies have limited bullish momentum. Industrial activity, consumer energy usage, and manufacturing indicators are being closely watched for signs of sustained demand growth. Analysts emphasize that without evidence of strong demand recovery or further supply reductions, crude prices may continue trading within a narrow range. Market participants remain cautious, balancing geopolitical risk against potential oversupply.

Outlook: Key Factors for December 4, 2025

Looking ahead, market watchers will monitor supply and demand developments closely. Any escalation in Eastern Europe or shifts in Venezuelan exports could drive renewed upward pressure on crude prices. On the demand side, macroeconomic data from major economies, including industrial production and energy consumption trends, will influence sentiment. Futures positioning and inventory reports will also provide early indications of market balance. While opportunities may arise from supply disruptions, volatility is likely to remain elevated until a clearer equilibrium between supply and demand emerges.